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Here is a full breakdown of leaderboard pick performance for each platform. The percentage reflects how many picks each platform got correct (out of 8 possible games considered), and token totals indicate winnings based on $10,000 per correct wager. Calculations are aligned to the actual final scores provided for NFL and NCAA games between September 18-22, 2025.
Platform Picks & Results
| Platform | Correct Picks | Percentage (%) | Tokens Won ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grok | 6 | 75 | $60,000 |
| Llama | 5 | 62.5 | $50,000 |
| Deepseek | 4 | 50 | $40,000 |
| Perplexity | 7 | 87.5 | $70,000 |
| Gemini | 7 | 87.5 | $70,000 |
| Claude | 6 | 75 | $60,000 |
| ChatGPT | 6 | 75 | $60,000 |
| Nemotron | 5 | 62.5 | $50,000 |
Scoring Details
Correct pick = $10,000 tokens.
Total possible picks per platform: 8.
% correct = (Correct Picks / 8) × 100.
Game-by-Game Accuracy
Example Breakdown (Perplexity):
Florida State (-8.0) vs Kent State (won 66-10): Correct
Oklahoma (-7.5) vs Auburn (won 24-17): Correct
Georgia Tech (Over 47.5) vs Temple (total points 69): Correct
Steelers (Under 42.5) vs Patriots (total points 35): Correct
Seahawks (Over 44.5) vs Saints (total points 57): Correct
Colts (Under 42.5) vs Titans (total points 61): Incorrect
Tennessee (-10.5) vs UAB (won 56-24): Correct
Michigan (-6.5) vs Nebraska (won 30-27): Correct
7 correct picks
Same analysis was run for each leaderboard platform.
Leaderboard Summary
Perplexity and Gemini shared the top spot with the highest correct pick rates, each winning $70,000 tokens (7/8 games).
Deepseek had the lowest accuracy and winnings (4/8 games, $40,000 tokens).
Other platforms landed between $50,000 and $60,000, reflecting moderate pick success (5-6 correct).
Key Insights
Most platforms struggled with the Colts/Titans wager, as the final score exceeded expected totals.
Big favorites (e.g., Tennessee, Florida State) were consistently easy wins for most platforms.
Perplexity and Gemini showed best overall consistency in picks throughout the slate provided.
This analysis illustrates leaderboard performance for each AI platform: win percentages, correct pick counts, and token winnings .
Excellent question. Let's calculate the hypothetical profit from a $1000 wagering bankroll based on the published XGameWager1 results, assuming standard -110 odds for each pick.
Here is a breakdown of the results and profitability for the top AI platforms.
XGameWager1 Results (Sept 18-22, 2025) - $1000 Bankroll Simulation
1. Top Performers: Perplexity & Gemini (7-1 Record, 87.5%)
This is an exceptional winning percentage.
· Wagers Placed: 8
· Bets Won: 7
· Bets Lost: 1
· **Bet Size (to wager ~$1000 total):** $125 per bet ($125 * 8 bets = $1000 total risked)
Profit Calculation:
· Profit from Wins: 7 wins * ($125 * 100/110) ≈ 7 wins * ~$113.64 = +$795.45
· Loss from Losses: 1 loss * $125 = **-$125**
· Net Profit: $795.45 - $125 = +$670.45
· Return on Investment (ROI): ($670.45 / $1000) * 100 = 67.05%
---
2. Middle Tier: Grok, Claude, ChatGPT (6-2 Record, 75.0%)
This is a very strong winning percentage.
· Wagers Placed: 8
· Bets Won: 6
· Bets Lost: 2
· Bet Size: $125 per bet
Profit Calculation:
· Profit from Wins: 6 wins * ~$113.64 = **+$681.84**
· Loss from Losses: 2 losses * $125 = **-$250**
· Net Profit: $681.84 - $250 = +$431.84
· Return on Investment (ROI): ($431.84 / $1000) * 100 = 43.18%
---
3. Lower Tier: Llama, Nemotron (5-3 Record, 62.5%)
This is a profitable record above the 52.38% break-even point.
· Wagers Placed: 8
· Bets Won: 5
· Bets Lost: 3
· Bet Size: $125 per bet
Profit Calculation:
· Profit from Wins: 5 wins * ~$113.64 = **+$568.20**
· Loss from Losses: 3 losses * $125 = **-$375**
· Net Profit: $568.20 - $375 = +$193.20
· Return on Investment (ROI): ($193.20 / $1000) * 100 = 19.32%
4. Lowest Performer: DeepSeek (4-4 Record, 50.0%)
A 50% record is not profitable due to the sportsbook's commission (the "vig" or "juice").
· Wagers Placed: 8
· Bets Won: 4
· Bets Lost: 4
· Bet Size: $125 per bet
Profit Calculation:
· Profit from Wins: 4 wins * ~$113.64 = **+$454.56**
· Loss from Losses: 4 losses * $125 = **-$500**
· Net Profit: $454.56 - $500 = -$45.44
· Return on Investment (ROI): -4.54% (A loss)
Summary Table
AI Platform Record Win Percentage Net Profit (on $1k) ROI
Perplexity / Gemini 7-1 87.5% +$670.45 +67.05%
Grok / Claude / ChatGPT 6-2 75.0% +$431.84 +43.18%
Llama / Nemotron 5-3 62.5% +$193.20 +19.32%
DeepSeek 4-4 50.0% -$45.44 -4.54%
Disclaimer: This is a simplified simulation based on one week of results. Long-term profitability in sports betting requires consistently beating the break-even point of 52.38%. A single week's performance, while impressive for the top AIs, is a very small sample size.